Arrogance Can Be a Problem---Especially in Business
We've all been there at one time or another. We thought what we were doing or what we were thinking was indisputable. There's nothing that we could have missed. That we've got it all figured out. And then somehow, things did not go the way we thought. A lesson from the real world for all of us.
It's been reported recently that Amazon is now the world's largest shipper of packages. Estimated for 2023, Amazon looks to ship nearly 6 billion packages to customers in the United States. That now dwarfs both FedEx and UPS.
It doesn't seem that long ago that our Amazon deliveries came from one of the great three-member third-party shipping agents. FedEx, UPS, and the United States Postal Service seem to be making deliveries all the time for Amazon. At the time when the change began, one might remember the fact that there were quiet rumblings that the big three felt as if Amazon needed them more than they needed Amazon. As a result of that arrogance, Amazon started with independent contractors delivering packages. They then invested in vans. And then it was large airplanes. And if that wasn't enough, they're now building several enormous satellite warehouses to store all the billions of products so they can be delivered even more quickly. It's cheaper to build a warehouse and store inventory than it is to fly it from distant locations.
How do the big three delivery companies now look in terms of strategy and outlook compared to just 10 years ago? They look like they've been left behind.
It's a great lesson in both personal and business life. The two things that I've come to appreciate most about threats are complacency and unintended consequences. In this case, complacency was the arrogance that the delivery companies didn't have to change or adjust. It reminds me of the telephone companies, and I’m not talking about the cell phone companies, who never believed landlines would ever disappear. No change equaled immense competition.
And while by definition unintended or unforeseen consequences can't be accurately predicted, great planning and an open mind can eliminate many of the unknown scenarios. Or at least as they begin to develop, having an openness to the situation may allow some adjustment as they come into view.
Three decades ago, Amazon was thought of as a book company. Two decades ago, no one ever dreamed they would be the world's largest seller of goods. One decade ago, the big three delivery services thought Amazon needed them so much that they didn't have to worry. In a decade from now, what will Amazon be? I'm not sure, but if they keep their strategy going forward, other companies should look out as well.
